【新唐人2013年09月26日讯】中共周一发布了禁止向朝鲜出口的技术和商品清单，以防止这些技术和商品可能被用来制造核武器和生化武器。专家指出，朝鲜一直是中共的一个烫手山芋。中共需要在捍卫共产主义盟友和防范核威胁方面保持微妙的平衡。专家分析，习近平新领导层对朝鲜政策或有所改变。
中共商务部在其网站声明中宣称：〝禁止向朝鲜出口本公告所公布的与大规模杀伤性武器及其运载工具相关的两用物项和技术〞，还附上了236页的禁运清单。两用物项指的是这些物品表面上可用于民用，但也用于军事项目。涉及包括核领域、导弹领域、化学和生物领域。
复旦大学韩国朝鲜研究中心副教授蔡建：〝以前联合国通过四个决议，以前中国（共）对这个问题的认识不是这样认识的，所以并没有很坚决的执行这个决议。那么现在中国，我们新的领导当局，觉得朝鲜这种做法对中国（共）的利益是有损害的，所以比较严格的执行这样一个制裁决议。〞
复旦大学韩国朝鲜研究中心副教授蔡建观察，习近平新领导层对朝鲜政策作出一些调整，因为朝鲜的一些挑衅的行为使地区局势的不稳定，造成中共与国际社会一些国家关系的紧张，这都是当局不希望看到的。
蔡建：〝比如说中国（共）一直想在韩国跟朝鲜之间保持一种平衡的外交关系，但是它（朝鲜）总是制造一种紧张局势，让中国（共）的外交政策很难以保持这样一种平衡。在某种程度上它就利用了中国跟周边国家的矛盾来达到它的目的，包括中国和美国的关系。〞
纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明分析说，中共出台这个禁运清单有几个因素。他认为，中共对朝鲜的态度一直存在矛盾，而自身政权的安全是它考虑的最大问题。
纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明：〝一方面可以看到朝鲜是中共政权安全的一道屏障，因为一方面朝鲜可以作为一张纸牌，可以作为一个缓冲力量，跟美国和日本做一些交易，或者向美国和日本施加一些压力。从这个角度来说，朝鲜显得有助于中共政权的安全。〞
夏明表示，目前，中共跟朝鲜陷入比较微妙的关系。无论从中共外交界还是民意来看，中国国内对朝鲜显示出越来越多的不耐烦，它的流氓行径引发老百姓的强烈不满。此外，在国际上，中共要面对美国和西方国家包括日本的批评和压力，同时朝鲜对中共提供的各种技术又非常不负责任，轻易地扩散到其他国家。
另一方面，夏明指出，朝鲜国内出现了很多问题，尤其是金家王朝进入第三代后，接班人金正恩做事鲁莽和无赖。
金正恩接班后，擅自试验核爆，试射导弹，或者向南朝鲜岛屿进攻。朝鲜经济出现严重问题，难民不断涌向中国边境，给中国带来很多麻烦和不稳定因素。
夏明：〝从这个角度来看，朝鲜又成为中共一个政体安全的负资产。所以对中共来说，对朝鲜确确实实是既想用它，可是朝鲜又变得不可预测，会带来什么样的政治影响？尤其是对政体安全造成的影响，它又不可预测。所以对中共来说，朝鲜总是一个头痛的事情。〞
夏明认为，从内心来说，中共是绝对不希望朝鲜拥有原子弹的。但是，中共就是在西方国家和苏联联手阻止的压力下，发展出自己的原子弹和氢弹的。所以中共的外交方针认为，第三世界国家拥有发展核武器的权利。
夏明强调，中共的这个立场，就迫使它对朝鲜、伊朗这些国家发展核武器，无法选择太多的谴责态度。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/李勇
China´s New Attitude Towards North Korea
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a ban
on export of many items and technologies to North Korea
which could possibly be used to make nuclear and biological
weapons.
Experts point out that North Korea has become
a hot potato for the CCP.
China needs to maintain a delicate balance between
defending its allies and preventing nuclear threats.
Xi Jinping´s new leadership is changing its policy towards
North Korea (NK.)
The Ministry of Commerce published a statement
on its website which said, "Items and technologies that have
dual-purposes and are related to weapons of mass destruction
are prohibited from export to NK.
Dual-purpose refers to having both civilian and military use,
including nuclear, missiles, chemical and biological uses.
Associate Professor Cai Jian, Korean research center, Fudan
University: "The UN adopted four resolutions before.
Because the CCP has a different understanding of this issue,
these resolutions have not been firmly implemented.
China´s new leadership recognizes that such an approach
towards NK actually hurts the CCP´s interests, and therefore,
it wants to more strictly enforce the resolutions."
According to Cai Jian´s observation, Xi Jinping made
some adjustments to his policy towards NK.
The CCP does not want to see that NK´s provocative behavior
causes regional instability and tension
between the CCP and other countries.
Cai Jian: "The CCP always wants to maintain a diplomatic
balance between South Korea and North Korea.
However, North Korea always creates tensions
and troubles for China´s foreign policy.
To some degree, North Korea takes advantage of China´s
conflicts with its neighboring countries to achieve its own goal,
including its relationship with China and the US."
Professor Xia Ming, political science, City University
of New York, said there are several factors
to the introduction of an embargo.
He believes that the CCP has conflicts in its NK diplomacy,
but its biggest problem is the security of the regime itself.
Xia Ming: "On the one hand, NK is a barrier for the CCP´s
security.
On the other hand, NK is also a leverage, which can be used
as a buffer zone or for adding some pressure in dealing with the US and Japan.
From that standpoint, NK obviously helps to maintain
the Chinese regime´s security."
Xia Ming believes that the relationship between the CCP
and NK is quite delicate.
Diplomatically, the CCP is getting more impatient with NK,
whose thugish behavior also draws complaints from Chinese people.
In addition, internationally, the CCP faces criticism
and pressure from many countries, including the US and Japan.
Meanwhile, NK acts irresponsibly, carelessly spreading
various technologies from China to other countries.
Xia Ming also points out that NK faces many issues,
particularly since the Kim Dynasty has entered
its third generation, and the successor, Kim Jong-un, acts recklessly.
After Kim Jong-un became the leader, he authorized nuclear
tests, test-fired missiles, and planned to attack South Korea.
NK´s severe economic crisis causes a large number
of refugees to flee to China´s border and creates problems
and instability for the CCP.
Xia Ming: "From this perspective, NK has become its liability
for the CCP´s security.
Therefore, NK is a pain in the neck for the CCP.
The CCP wants to use NK, but it is unpredictable.
One cannot tell what kind of political impact NK would bring,
particularly towards the security of the CCP."
Xia Ming thinks that from deep down inside, the CCP
does not want NK to own atomic bombs.
However, the CCP developed its own nuclear bombs despite
joint preventive efforts from the Soviet Union and the US.
Therefore, the CCP´s stance on nuclear weapons is that
third world countries have the right to own them.
Xia Ming emphasizes that the CCP´s stance keeps it from
condemning NK and Iran over developing nuclear weapons.
相关标签： 中共 朝鲜 禁运清单 核武器
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